There was no increased yield mentioned in Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), but corn supplies were estimated higher. That’s based on the increased corn acreage reported June 30 and reduced overall demand.
Estimates for new-year corn production are 12.3 billion bu., 355 million bu. more than estimated the previous month.
Corn supplies are projected at 14.1 million bu., up 335 million bu. from 2008/09. Feed and residual use for 2009/10 is raised 50 million bu. as increased supplies and lower prices are expected to boost feeding demand.
Though increased export demand is expected for current-year corn, projected declines in domestic usage pave the way for higher ending stocks (2009-10) at 1.6 billion bu., up 460 million bu. from last month’s projection, but still 220 million bu. less than 2008-09.
Add it all up and USDA lopped 55¢ off both ends of the expected price range to $3.35-$4.15 for the 2009-10 marketing year average. For the current marketing year, 15¢ was shaved from both ends of the range to $3.95-$4.15, reflecting sharply lower summer price prospects.
Incidentally, WASDE analysts explain, “The decline in corn prices has boosted ethanol producer margins; however, reduced production of gasoline blends with ethanol in May and June, based on the most recent weekly data, indicate lower-than-expected ethanol corn use.”
For the week ending July 5, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service:
Corn—8% is at or beyond silking, compared to 5% last year and 16% for average. Crop development was at or behind the average pace in all states except North Carolina. Ideal growing conditions in Tennessee allowed 39%of the crop to begin silking during the week. The corn crop was rated 71% Good to Excellent, 9% more than a year ago.
Soybeans—96% has emerged, which is 2% ahead of last year, but 2% behind average. In Iowa, the largest soybean-producing state, emergence was stagnate as producers in the southeastern part of the state continued to battle soggy fields in their efforts to plant their intended acreage. Blooming is underway in all states and has reached 14% overall. That’s 2% better than last year, but 10% behind average. 66% is rated as Good to Excellent, which is 7% more than at the same time last year.
Spring wheat—30% of the crop has headed, which is 24% behind last year, and 35% behind the average pace. Heading was behind normal in all states except Washington where progress was nearly complete. 72% of the crop was rated Good to Excellent, 3% more than a year ago.
Barley—27% has headed, which is 27% in back of last year and 34% behind the average pace. Significant advancement occurred in all states, with 25% of Washington’s crop developing heads during the week. 77% is rated Good to Excellent, compared to 69% at the same time a year ago.
Sorghum—97% of the intended acreage is sown, 1% ahead of last year and the average. 26% is at or beyond heading, 1% ahead of last year but 1% behind the average pace. Above average temperatures allowed for rapid development in the Delta states of Arkansas and Louisiana. Driven mostly by the crop in Texas, coloring has reached 20% complete, 1 point ahead of last year and on par with the five-year average. 51% is rated Good to Excellent, on par with the same time a year ago.
Oats—77% is at or beyond heading, 2 points slower than last year, and 10% behind the five-year average. 10% of the crop is in the bin, which is on par with last year and the five-year average. Harvest was nearly complete in Texas, the largest oat-producing state, and was just beginning in Nebraska and Ohio. 59% was rated Good and Excellent, compared to 66% at the same time last year.
Pasture—53% of the nation’s pasture and range is rated as Good or Excellent, 4% more than at the same time last year. 21% is rated Poor or Very Poor, compared to 24% a year ago.
States with the worst pasture conditions—at least 30% of the acreage rated Poor or worse—include: Arizona (31%); California (90%); Louisiana (40%); Mississippi (60%); New Mexico (43%); and Texas (53%).
The lushest conditions—at least 40% rated Good or better—exist in: Arkansas (59%); Colorado (67%); Florida (70%); Idaho (80%); Illinois (79%); Indiana (75%); Iowa (72%); Kansas (71%); Kentucky (68%); Maine (43%); Maryland (85%); Michigan (59%); Minnesota (58%); Missouri (67%); Montana (52%); Nebraska (84%); Nevada (69%); New York (82%); North Carolina (58%); North Dakota (74%); Ohio (67%); Oklahoma (51%); Oregon (60%); Pennsylvania (71%); South Carolina (46%); South Dakota (76%); Tennessee (53%); Utah (85%); Virginia (75%); West Virginia (66%); Wisconsin (61%); and Wyoming (82%).