Although calf and feeder markets continue to run against seasonal trends, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) expect them to return to more historically familiar patterns next year.

“In 2014, the average calf price in the fourth quarter of the year is projected to be the highest of the year,” LMIC analysts say. “Normally, calf prices are lowest in the fourth quarter of the year, but that normal seasonal pattern has not held in recent years. In fact, in both 2013 and 2011, calf prices were highest in the last quarter of the year. Further, in 2012, the fourth quarter average was above the third quarter.”

LMIC analysts note the last ‘normal’ year for seasonal calf prices peaking in the second quarter came in 2010.

“Three major factors have driven calf prices to record highs: 1) tighter cattle supplies; 2) record high fed cattle prices; and 3) lower corn costs. Those factors, in turn, have impacted seasonal price patterns,” LMIC analysts explain.
 

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