market seasonality

Market Seasonality Should Return Next Year

Although calf and feeder markets are defying seasonal trends this year, and in recent times, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center expect historically familiar patterns next year. For calves, that likely means achieving the annual price summit in the second quarter of the year rather than the fourth as expected this year.

Although calf and feeder markets continue to run against seasonal trends, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) expect them to return to more historically familiar patterns next year.

“In 2014, the average calf price in the fourth quarter of the year is projected to be the highest of the year,” LMIC analysts say. “Normally, calf prices are lowest in the fourth quarter of the year, but that normal seasonal pattern has not held in recent years. In fact, in both 2013 and 2011, calf prices were highest in the last quarter of the year. Further, in 2012, the fourth quarter average was above the third quarter.”

LMIC analysts note the last ‘normal’ year for seasonal calf prices peaking in the second quarter came in 2010.

“Three major factors have driven calf prices to record highs: 1) tighter cattle supplies; 2) record high fed cattle prices; and 3) lower corn costs. Those factors, in turn, have impacted seasonal price patterns,” LMIC analysts explain.
 

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