In today’s market, a tremendous amount of brain cells have been burned up trying to explain that which seems to have no explanation.

Troy Marshall 2, BEEF Contributing Editor

June 29, 2017

1 Min Read
I give up; you try to explain this market

I recently read the best market analysis I have seen in a while. It described that the futures market was up limit or nearly up limit on Monday, followed by crashing on Tuesday and giving up all the gains made on Monday. Then, with no change in open interest Wednesday, the following explanation was given: “There doesn't seem to be an easy explanation, as is so often the case in recent years.” 

That about sums it up. In today’s market, a tremendous amount of brain cells have been burned up trying to explain that which has no explanation. I don’t know if it is algorithms or millions of decisions that happen so quickly that context and reason are no longer able to be factored in. Or if it is simply a chaotic symphony between the opposing forces of irrational exuberance and unrestrained fear.

It is not that I don’t care or that I am not intrigued by the prospect of solving the riddle. It’s like my dog. I have no idea why she loves us, why she is so loyal or why she wants to work. I’ve learned to just appreciate those facts without knowing why. 

The market may not be loyal, it may not have our best interests at heart, it may not even be transparent or accurate, but it is constrained by reality at some point. And while I may not always appreciate its volatility, I am learning to accept it for what it is. Like the mysteries of faith, or marriage to a wonderful woman, it doesn’t fit into a nice, clean box. And I’m OK with that. What choice do I have anyway? 

Related:It’s not always smooth sailing on the cattle market winds

About the Author(s)

Troy Marshall 2

BEEF Contributing Editor

Troy Marshall is a multi-generational rancher who grew up in Wheatland, WY, and obtained an Equine Science/Animal Science degree from Colorado State University where he competed on both the livestock and World Champion Horse Judging teams. Following college, he worked as a market analyst for Cattle-Fax covering different regions of the country. Troy also worked as director of commercial marketing for two breed associations; these positions were some of the first to provide direct links tying breed associations to the commercial cow-calf industry.

A visionary with a great grasp for all segments of the industry, Troy is a regular opinion contributor to BEEF Cow-Calf Weekly. His columns are widely reprinted and provide in-depth reporting and commentary from the perspective of a producer who truly understands the economics and challenges of the different industry segments. He is also a partner/owner in Allied Genetic Resources, a company created to change the definition of customer service provided by the seedstock industry. Troy and his wife Lorna have three children. 

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