Will the June 28 Grain Stocks report surprise traders? Join the discussion below.

Nevil Speer

June 20, 2013

2 Min Read
Industry At A Glance: Will June Grain Stocks Report Surprise Traders?

USDA’s June Grain Stocks report has proven especially important during the past several years. That will be particularly true this year if the June 28 report provides traders with any type of surprise.

The June report in tight carryover years, such as 2013, is especially significant because it indicates work that lies ahead for the market to ration (or not ration) demand to ensure at least “pipeline” carryover into the following production year. The trade will be highly reactive to the June 28 report if it portends any additional tightening.

Conditions during the past several years have provided the market with the luxury of being able to “borrow” early-harvested corn and provide some supply buffer. However, that luxury may not be so easy to come by this year, given the planting delays and subsequent cool, wet weather for crop establishment. Therefore, there remain lots of “ifs” surrounding final carryover for the 2012-2013 marketing year, as well as the management needed going into the 2013-14 marketing year.

june grain stocks report

March 1 stocks were marked at 5.4 billion bu., vs. 7.7, 6.5 and 6.02 billion bu. in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. Therefore, it’s likely that June stocks will fall below previous years. The graph outlines June 1 stocks and subsequent three-month usage (to close out the marketing year) during the past several years to provide some benchmark for this year’s report.

How do you perceive corn inventory out in the country? Are corn growers hanging on to corn waiting for higher prices or are they simply out of corn? That influence helps price all other feeds. How are you managing your feed costs and inventory needs of all kinds? Provide your corn market analysis and comments below.

 

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About the Author(s)

Nevil Speer

Nevil Speer serves as an industry consultant and is based in Bowling Green, KY.

Nevil Speer has extensive experience and involvement with the livestock and food industry including various service and consultation projects spanning such issues as market competition, business and economic implications of agroterrorism, animal identification, assessment of price risk and market volatility on the producer segment, and usage of antibiotics in animal agriculture.
 
Dr. Speer writes about many aspects regarding agriculture and the food industry with regular contribution to BEEF and Feedstuffs.  He’s also written several influential industry white papers dealing with issues such as changing business dynamics in the beef complex, producer decision-making, and country-of-origin labeling.
 
He serves as a member of the Board of Directors for the National Institute for Animal Agriculture.
 
Dr. Speer holds both a PhD in Animal Science and a Master’s degree in Business Administration.

Contact him at [email protected].

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