Industry At A Glance: Beef Cow Slaughter RateIndustry At A Glance: Beef Cow Slaughter Rate

The current year is on pace to see an 11.4% slaughter rate of the starting cow inventory - the third-highest annual level since 1996, behind only 2011 and 2010 (12.3% and 11.6%, respectively).

Nevil Speer

September 12, 2013

2 Min Read
Industry At A Glance: Beef Cow Slaughter Rate

Beef cow slaughter rate, measured as a percentage of the beginning inventory, plays a huge role in determining the size of the following year’s beginning inventory. Analyzing that data becomes especially important given that USDA’s mid-year cattle inventory report is no longer available due to federal funding shortfalls.

Thus far in 2013, beef cow slaughter through the first half of the year has equaled approximately 1.6 million head. That’s equivalent to 5.45% of  2013’s starting head count. Perhaps more importantly, though, it surpasses the 10-year average slaughter pace from January-June by nearly 2/3 of a percentage point. In other words, we’re starting with a small inventory (29.3 million cows) and eating through it at a faster rate.

Meanwhile, during the past 10 years, the average slaughter rate during the second half of the year increases by nearly a half percentage point compared to the first half of the year. If that relationship holds in 2013, it’s likely that the beef cow slaughter rate will be nearly 6% between July and December.

beef cow slaughter rate

Given these trends, it appears that 2013 is on pace to slaughter about 11.4% of its starting cow inventory - the third-highest annual level since 1996, behind only 2011 and 2010 (12.3% and 11.6%, respectively).

How do you see weather and market signals shaping up in the second half of the year? Is 2013 a year in which the longer-run trends might get displaced? Or is it a year which plays out pretty much as expected? The implications are very important with respect to next year’s starting inventory (more on that next week).

Leave your thoughts below.

 

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About the Author

Nevil Speer

Nevil Speer works as an industry consultant based in Bowling Green, Kentucky.   He has experience in both academia and private industry.  His career includes working with several start-ups along with various service and consultation projects spanning a wide variety of topics.  

Dr. Speer holds a PhD in Animal Sciences from Colorado State University and an MBA from Western Kentucky University.

You can contact him at [email protected] 

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