March 4, 2022
The magnitude of the Russia-Ukraine conflict can't be underestimated. Ukraine is a major producer of wheat and sunflower. Combined with Belarus the region is responsible for one-third of the world's wheat and Ukraine is a major supplier of sunflower oil. Beyond that the conflict is creating market turmoil in everything from shipping to energy which will have a ripple effect across the globe.
Farm Futures has created a special digital multimedia report on the situation providing readers the opportunity to dig in on some key areas that could impact their farms in the near and more distant future. The special feature explores a range of key topics.
From fuel to fertilizer, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is roiling markets. The special report digs in on a wide range of issues that could be impacted. For example, already energy markets are seeing crude prices rise to levels not seen since 2014.
The key is understanding the global role of Russia and Ukraine in the energy market and why this conflict, even before the first shot was fired, saw traders react. The report explores that situation providing perspective on the importance of these two Eastern European countries to the global energy supply, especially to Western Europe.
On the fertilizer front, Russia has become a major player, and combined with Belarus, accounts for 40% of potash exports. And the impact of loss of this supply may big a bigger problem for Brazil versus North America, yet it will impact supply flows as the report points out.
Digging into the grain situation further, the conflict has a two-fold impact the report explores. First is the fact that the region has become a major supplier of key grains and oilseeds for the global market and if crops don't get planted that will impact supply. Add in that shipping lines and key ports have been closed and even if there's grain getting access is a problem.
Video looks at grain supply
The digital report includes a conversation with Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.Net exploring the grain markets and answering farmer questions about the current situation. In the report, Biedermann asks a good question: "What would an Iowa farmer do if tanks were rolling across his land?"
And answering some of these questions is a challenge. However, in his discussion of the issues Biedermann also offers some tactics farmers can deploy to limit their risk. In a volatile market where the limit up or limit down moves can expand to meet changing conditions, the risk farmers have increases in times like this.
Biedermann also explores two key potential "black swan" events that could go beyond the Russia-Ukraine conflict to add more turmoil to the markets. In his discussion he notes that if those happen, the current positive price picture most farmers are seeing could end quickly. In that discussion, he also offers advice on protecting your farm's risk management position.
Of course, the continue disruption is bringing another challenge – rising prices. While good news for farmers, that volatility can upend your risk management plan.
The report digs in on what might happen to raise the corn price beyond $8 with help from John Green, Advance Trading. Part of that comes from potential disruptions in spring planting in Ukraine, or a crimp in the harvest of winter wheat from the region. Either would change the global grain market supply picture, creating run-ups in price.
The report explores that in greater detail offering how the export market could change due to the conflict bringing a windfall in corn prices alone. This includes a look at the latest USDA Outlook numbers as the agency predicts a falling corn carryout for 2022.
Exploring the supply picture
From fertilizer to energy, the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises a host of questions. In a special video report as part of this digital release Sam Taylor, RaboResearch, shares his insights on the global supply picture, offering some added perspective into how the global market may be disrupted during the conflict.
Taylor points out that while the U.S. may have brought in the stocks of fertilizer need for 2022, questions may rise for 2023. And the bigger challenge is how this fertilizer and energy supply crunch may impact South America which has come to rely on fertilizer supplies from Ukraine and Russia, hindering their next crop this fall.
The report continues its look at Eastern Europe with help from Bill Biedermann, AgMarket.net, who details just what's grown where in the region. The conflict is wreaking havoc on what was once called the Breadbasket of the World where the steppes of the region have rich, productive topsoil.
Livestock picture explored
Richard Brock offers his insights on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will impact the input sector for livestock. With rising grain prices, even higher livestock prices may not be enough to avoid seeing margins crimped. Brock digs in on the topic exploring how this market volatility will impact producers.
He shares that insight in a special video report that's worth watching as the situation keeps unfolding.
And the report wraps up with insights from Bryce Knorr, former senior analyst for Farm Futures and continuing columnist. His advice? "Don't focus solely on Ukraine."
It's always good to look beyond the "now" with your marketing program and see what's ahead. Knorr does that by exploring how stocks are changing and looking at the demand picture. And he sees the potential for a summer rally for soybeans in 2022.
In a series of charts prepared for Farm Future, Knorr details key factors across the market providing insight on how not only the Russia-Ukraine conflict may impact markets, but digs in on other factors at work. Before the conflict started the soybean demand picture was heating up. Barring any unforeseen issues, Knorr says that could continue.
The pulls together a range of resources and information growers can use as they make risk management decisions.
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