September 16, 2017
Odds continue to favor lower feed prices, according to the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WSADE) released on Tuesday.
USDA surprised plenty of folks by increasing yield and total production for corn and soybeans.
Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels with yield of 169.9 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the third highest yield and production on record for the U.S. Corn ending stocks increased 62 million bushels from the previous month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 10¢ on both ends of the range to $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.
Based on conditions at the beginning of September, WASDE forecasts soybean yield at 49.9 bushels per acre for record-high total soybean production of 4.43 billion bushels. The 2017-18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05 per bushel.
With grazing prospects for winter wheat in mind, WASDE has 2017-18 wheat prices at $4.30 to $4.90 per bushel.
Beef and meat production lower
WASDE forecasts less total meat production for this year than a month earlier, with estimated decreases in beef and broiler production more than offsetting increased pork and turkey production.
More specifically, WASDE reduced second-half beef production on the slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle. For 2018, the beef production forecast is lowered from the previous month on the slower rate of placements during the second-half of 2017, which are expected to result in reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first half of next year.
“Cattle prices are reduced from last month for the remainder of 2017 and into early 2018 on current price weakness,” WASDE analysts say.
The fourth-quarter fed steer price is projected at $107 to $113 per cwt, compared to $110 to $113 estimated for the third quarter. The annual price was reduced $2 on both ends of the range from the previous month’s forecast to $118-$120. The projected first-quarter price for next year is $110 to $120.
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