Industry At A Glance: Will June Grain Stocks Report Surprise Traders?Industry At A Glance: Will June Grain Stocks Report Surprise Traders?

Will the June 28 Grain Stocks report surprise traders? Join the discussion below.

Nevil Speer

June 20, 2013

2 Min Read
Industry At A Glance: Will June Grain Stocks Report Surprise Traders?

USDA’s June Grain Stocks report has proven especially important during the past several years. That will be particularly true this year if the June 28 report provides traders with any type of surprise.

The June report in tight carryover years, such as 2013, is especially significant because it indicates work that lies ahead for the market to ration (or not ration) demand to ensure at least “pipeline” carryover into the following production year. The trade will be highly reactive to the June 28 report if it portends any additional tightening.

Conditions during the past several years have provided the market with the luxury of being able to “borrow” early-harvested corn and provide some supply buffer. However, that luxury may not be so easy to come by this year, given the planting delays and subsequent cool, wet weather for crop establishment. Therefore, there remain lots of “ifs” surrounding final carryover for the 2012-2013 marketing year, as well as the management needed going into the 2013-14 marketing year.

june grain stocks report

March 1 stocks were marked at 5.4 billion bu., vs. 7.7, 6.5 and 6.02 billion bu. in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. Therefore, it’s likely that June stocks will fall below previous years. The graph outlines June 1 stocks and subsequent three-month usage (to close out the marketing year) during the past several years to provide some benchmark for this year’s report.

How do you perceive corn inventory out in the country? Are corn growers hanging on to corn waiting for higher prices or are they simply out of corn? That influence helps price all other feeds. How are you managing your feed costs and inventory needs of all kinds? Provide your corn market analysis and comments below.

 

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About the Author

Nevil Speer

Nevil Speer works as an industry consultant based in Bowling Green, Kentucky.   He has experience in both academia and private industry.  His career includes working with several start-ups along with various service and consultation projects spanning a wide variety of topics.  

Dr. Speer holds a PhD in Animal Sciences from Colorado State University and an MBA from Western Kentucky University.

You can contact him at [email protected] 

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