Cattle prices hold steady amid seasonal shifts and production concernsCattle prices hold steady amid seasonal shifts and production concerns
Stable cattle prices amidst seasonal market adjustments and production challenges, highlighting regional cash trade figures, futures trends, and factors influencing beef production and market dynamics.
July 23, 2024

Trey G. Freeman, Commodity Futures Broker/Livestock Agent, Ever.Ag
Cash traded steady in the South last week at $187-188 per hundredweight and $2 lower in the North at $196 and $310 dressed. Seasonally, the spread between the North and the South should begin to narrow as calf-feds enter the market in the North.
Boxed beef prices continued their seasonal roll-over this week, with choice finishing the week down $8.23 per hundredweight at $313.83. Primal rib and loins lead the way lower as consumers turn away from middle meats amid the summer heat.
Higher dressed cattle weights raised their ugly heads once more in last week’s report after declining over the last month. Dressed steer weights were reported up five pounds from the previous week at 916, while heifer weights were four pounds higher at 834. These are 24 pounds and 22 pounds above year ago levels, respectively. Dressed weights seasonally tend to increase into November. This will continue to be an area of caution for the market, offsetting some the lower slaughter and helping moderate beef production.
Nearby August live cattle futures finished the week with a small gain of $0.725 per hundredweight, settling at $183.100, supported by a sharp discount to the cash market. A lack of enthusiasm was noted in the further out months, as open interest was mostly flat through Thursday. Overall, the market treaded water as packer margins are becoming a concern due to weakening boxed beef prices.
Nearby August feeder cattle futures finished the week $3.05 per hundredweight lower, settling at $255.600. Feeder cattle futures are not liking the weak tone observed in deferred live cattle futures. August tested the 100-day moving average above the market three times this week, and was unable to settle above all three times. The seasonal for August is friendly until August 10, but gains appear limited without the help of deferred live cattle futures.
This month’s Cattle on Feed report offered a friendly placements number of 93.2%. This was 4% below pre-report estimates. A lower placements number is not all that surprising given the heavier-than-expected placements noted in May, and improved pasture conditions compared to a year ago. Seasonally, placements tend to decline in May and June before picking up again later in the summer.
Kansas had the largest drop in placements compared to a year ago, reported at 310,000 head, compared to 400,000 a year ago, or a 22.5% drop. Texas had 5,000 fewer placements, or 1.36% fewer head. Nebraska came in near par, with 10,000 less head, or 2.36% fewer. Offsetting lighter placements in Texas and Nebraska was Colorado, with 15,000 more head placed.
Marketings in June came in at 91.3%, or 0.4% lower than the average pre-report estimate. This is the second-lowest marketings number for the month of June. There were two less business days in June this year than last, contributing to the sharply lower number.
The on feed number came in at 100.5%, or 0.6% lower than the average pre-report estimate. Heifer and heifer calves on feed were reported at 4.48 million head, compared to 4.475 million head a year ago, suggesting little herd retention.
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