By James Mitchell, assistant professor, University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, Research & Extension

Is anyone keeping heifers? It's a question I've been asked at every cattlemen's meeting I've been to this fall – and one I've been asking myself. The answer appears to be a definitive “no,” from all the information I've gathered. Every data source I can think of points to the same conclusion.

Of course, some producers will retain a few heifers this fall; several do so every year. But in aggregate, there's no sign of herd rebuilding.

The first Figure shows total feeder and stocker cattle receipts, including auctions, direct sales and video auctions. This year, auction receipts are down 4.4% compared to 2023, with fall receipts (September to November) down 2.8% year over year. The data on auction receipts also separates calves from feeder cattle and distinguishes steers from heifers. This provides another data point to indicate whether heifer retention is occurring.

The second Figure shows the share of feeder and stocker cattle receipts that are heifers. I included data from 2012 to 2014 to illustrate what these figures looked like leading up to the last rebuilding phase at the start of the current cattle cycle. We have yet to reach a comparable point in the data.

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In 2024, heifers are averaging 42% of total receipts, similar to 2023 but noticeably higher than the 39% average in 2012-14. This difference might seem small, but when applied to total auction receipts, it can mean 400,000-500,000 fewer heifers are sold.

What we don’t know is how many producers would have kept heifers if it weren’t for this fall’s drought. I don’t think the overall conclusions about herd rebuilding would have changed, but the drought has further delayed any rebuilding from occurring.

Most believe it could begin as early as next year. For now, however, most producers are pleased with high calf prices and are well aware of the opportunity cost of retaining heifers as replacements.