Study: Great Plains becoming next ‘wildfire frontier’

As the fires increase on the Great Plains, researchers say the region is becoming the next Rocky Mountains or California of wildfires.

July 11, 2017

4 Min Read
WILDFIRES UP: A study by Nebraska researchers shows that in the Great Plains, the average area of land annually burned by wildfire has grown by more than 400% between 1985 and 2014.

By Leslie Reed

After a century of attempts to eradicate wildfires, the Great Plains is experiencing a sharp resurgence in the number of large wildfires breaking out each year, according to new research from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Using remote sensing data collected by the USDA Forest Service and the U.S. Geological Survey, the Nebraska research team documented that the number of fires occurring each year has tripled in the Great Plains over the past three decades.

The first in-depth study to document changing wildfire patterns across the entire Great Plains region, the study indicates the average area of land annually burned by wildfire has grown by over 400%, from thousands of acres per year in 1985 to 1994, to millions of acres per year from 2005 to 2014.

"Great Plains states have recorded some of their worst wildfire seasons on record during the past 10 to 15 years," says Victoria Donovan, a doctoral student in agronomy and horticulture and lead author of the study.

Wildfires on rise
Co-author Dirac Twidwell, an ecologist who specializes in rangeland and fires, says the study is part of a larger effort to better understand the connections between human activity and the grasslands ecosystem of the Great Plains. "The Great Plains will be the next wildfire frontier," he says. "We're the next Rocky Mountains. We're the next California."

Postdoctoral researcher Carissa Wonkka, who assisted with the study's statistical analysis, says the study documents a substantial increase in the average number of wildfires, from 33 per year in 1985-94 to 117 per year in 2005-14  in an area long considered at low risk for wildfires.

"This has major implications for wildfire planning in the United States," she says. "Most of the wildland fire resources are tied up in areas that are considered high-risk regions, and there already is an enormous and increasing strain on those resources."

While the statistics seem astonishing, they're not unexpected to ecologists who have been observing regional changes in wildfire patterns, Twidwell says.

In the past century, Great Plains residents have been successful at suppressing and eradicating fires, he says. Still, those very efforts have contributed to a situation that now makes the region more vulnerable to fire.

Conifer trees like eastern red cedar and ashe juniper, often planted as windbreaks and shelterbelts, have widely spread over the last century, creating a buildup of fuels that are particularly volatile during dry spells. Meanwhile, more people now live on the edges of wild lands, increasing the chances of human ignition — and the odds that they will fall victim to wildfire. Recent severe droughts also have contributed to the possibility of fire.

Donovan and the research team assessed each of 14 ecoregions in the Great Plains, from the Northwestern Glaciated Plains of Montana to the Western Gulf Coastal Plains in Texas and Louisiana.

Researchers found each region had experienced changes in fire patterns, whether increases in number, frequency and area burned or fluctuations in the seasons in which fires are most likely to occur.

The increases in number and area burned were driven largely by changes in the western and southern reaches of the Great Plains.


FIRE PATTERNS CHANGE: The Nebraska research team assessed 14 ecoregions in the Great Plains, from Montana to Texas and Louisiana. Researchers found each region had experienced changes in fire patterns, whether increases in number, frequency and area burned or fluctuations in the seasons in which fires are most likely to occur. (Photo courtesy of University Communication, UNL)

The likelihood of large wildfires occurring each year grew significantly in southern Texas ecoregions and in the central plains ecoregions of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. In the Northwestern Glaciated Plains ecoregion of Montana and the Dakotas, fire season shifted from being more concentrated in the spring to being more concentrated in late summer and early fall.

The Central Great Plains ecoregion saw fires increase by 500%, from an average of 21 per year in 1985-94 to 134 per year in 2005-14. The average area burned grew by 400%, from about 280,000 acres per year to more than 1.4 million per year.

Challenge brings opportunity
Donovan says more research is needed to identify the precise factors that are contributing to a higher number of fires in the Great Plains region, while Wonkka says the study’s findings offer an opportunity to proactively manage the situation.

Noting that fire is an integral part of a successful grasslands ecosystem, Twidwell called for a new way of thinking about the phenomenon.

"Instead of trying to put all our efforts into eradicating fire, perhaps we should treat it like other forces of nature, like flooding, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions," he says.

People could better understand how to live in fire-prone areas and take steps to reduce the risks to themselves and their property. Regular prescribed burns, which reduce the amount of volatile fuels in the form of trees and dead grass, have been found to slow the spread of wildfire.

"Even in the Great Plains, where there's been this mantra to eradicate fire, it's not going to be successful long term," Twidwell added. "One of the paradoxes is that if you don't have prescribed fires, you eventually get wildfires that we can't control."

Reed is national news director of University Communication at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the source of this article.


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