Fed cattle on the negotiated market traded at $191-$192 per hundredweight in the South last week, steady to $1 higher. In the North, cattle traded at $193-$195 per hundredweight live and $300-$305 dressed, $3 to $5 higher and $3 to $8 higher, respectively.

The slaughter estimate last week was at 609,000 head, 5,000 head lower than the week prior and 38,000 below last year.

Boxed beef prices are varying greatly day-to-day on account of spot market fill-in orders where end users tend to pay up – a regular feature of the busy holiday season.

Last week, USDA lowered its forecast for second and third quarter 2025 beef production from the November forecast by 1.4% and 2.4%, respectively. This is likely due to the closure of feeder cattle imports into the US.

USDA slaughter data for the week ending November 30th showed dressed steer weights two pounds higher from the week prior, at 954 pounds. Dressed heifer weights came in four pounds higher, at 865 pounds.

December live cattle settled $6.275 per hundredweight higher for the week at $193.65 on account of the sharply higher cash market. The February contract settled $5.85 per hundredweight higher at $192.025. February and April contracts seasonally tend to rise into the first of the year.

Open interest in live cattle was up 10,071 contracts last week. Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report for positions as of December 10 revealed managed money with a net long position of 128,762 contracts in live cattle, up another 4,884 contracts. This is the largest net long position for managed money in live cattle since April 2019.

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The latest CME Feeder Index for the seven-day average ending December 12 landed at $262.59 per hundredweight. The index is benefitting from sharp price increases on animals weighing on the lighter end of the index as timely rains have greatly improved winter forage.

January feeder cattle settled $3 per hundredweight higher for the week at $257.65, posting an inside week on the chart and $3 off the high for the week. Managed money also added another 801 contracts to their net long position in feeder cattle, reported at 18,322 contracts, their net-longest position since June of last year, which was 18,698 contracts. Any net long number of contracts held by managed money greater than that have not been seen in feeders since March of 2012.

Moving forward, Managed money holds net long positions at levels not seen in years, and prices are near record highs. With that in mind, we see significant downside risk if the funds run for the door, something they tend to do in quick fashion. On the cash side, market participants are keeping a close eye on any USDA comments relating to the re-opening of the border to feeder cattle imports from Mexico. Currently, expectations are for the border to open early to mid-January. Any extended closure is likely to take both feeders and live cattle another leg higher.

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