The U.S Department of Agriculture is forecasting Brazil chicken meat exports will rise by 4% in 2023 on firm demand in key markets and production challenges by key competitors. Highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in North America and Europe, rising energy costs in the EU, and production disruptions in the Ukraine have decreased competitors’ exportable supplies and price competitiveness, USDA noted, adding that the events “enable Brazil to benefit from firm global demand as consumers seek lower priced animal protein amid inflation of food prices.”
Further, Brazil ships a wide variety of products (including whole birds and breast cuts) to service a broad range of markets. For example, Brazil is a robust supplier of halal products to the Middle East which is forecast to have strong demand in 2023. Brazil will remain the world’s top exporter, accounting for over one-third of global shipments.
USDA is forecasting Brazil beef exports will rise 1%. Further, the country will maintain its position as top exporter, accounting for approximately 25% of beef exports by major traders.
China is expected to remain Brazil’s largest market despite lower total beef imports due to increased domestic supplies. USDA said Argentina and Uruguay, Brazil’s main competitors in China, will have tighter supplies of cattle, limiting their exportable supplies. Furthermore, Brazil exports only frozen boneless beef to China and at more competitive prices than New Zealand and Australia making its shipments more attractive amid the economic slowdown, USDA said. In addition to China, Brazil shipments to Middle East and Southeast Asia markets are expected to climb as India’s exports are expected to be stagnant.
On the pork side, USDA expects Brazil to maintain its position as the world’s fourth-largest pork exporter in 2023 with an approximate 10-percent market share. Brazil pork exports are estimated to rise by 3% on robust exports to South America and Southeast Asia, including the Philippines where African swine fever constrains production. USDA said China will remain Brazil’s top destination, but China’s total pork imports are expected to fall due to rising domestic supplies.